Global security policy perspectives for 2035

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of human existence. And yet in politics, economics and society, decisions must constantly be made in uncertainty, but still on the basis of well-founded assumptions. Hence a growing number of risk analysts, futurologists, strategy and planning departments, think tanks, etc. are devoting themselves to the task of rationalising decisions for the future, considering contexts, stakeholders and perspectives. Yet in the field of security policy, i.e. ensuring citizens’ safety both nationally and internationally as a central task of the state, the planning horizon is often determined by the demands of everyday politics and the fixation on election cycles. Meanwhile, long-term developments and trends are sidelined, as is a sense of the interdependence of developments in different parts of the world.

The working group takes a systematic approach to investigating the opportunities and limits of the analysis of future developments in security policy. Certain developments are far more likely to become a reality than others. While it is often the case that, in retrospect, the simple continuation of existing trends does indeed correspond to the actual development, it is just as important to systematically consider which disruptions could ultimately render such simplistic extrapolation obsolete. Only by understanding the present and gauging possible discontinuities as well as shifts in the significance of key variables will we be able to guide our present actions by a more comprehensive understanding of the future.

The aim of the working group is to look into long-term developments, to draft a statement on expectations, important trends and possible discontinuities and to deduce from this some clearly-defined recommendations for policymakers and the general public. Those with well-informed notions of changes in the security situation and of the security policy perspectives of the “world in 2035” will be better equipped to meet the challenges of both the present and the future. A key objective here is to shift attention from short-term problems to long-term developments, to increase awareness of these and to initiate discussion and decision-making processes on central security-policy challenges.

Participating Institutions:

Spokesperson of the Working Group:

  • Prof. Dr. Cord Jakobeit, Programmbereich Politikwissenschaft (Political Science Programme), Universität Hamburg

Members of the Working Group:

  • Prof. Dr. Eva Barlösius, Institut für Soziologie, Leibniz University Hannover (LUH)

  • Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH)

  • Prof. Dr. Petra Dobner, Institut für Politikwissenschaft und Japanologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU)

  • Prof. Dr. Armin Grunwald, Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger, Department of Political Science and European Issues, University of Cologne · Oberst a.D. Roland Kaestner, Institut für strategische Zukunftsanalyse, Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Stiftung

  • Prof. Dr. Sebastian Graf von Kielmansegg, Institut für Öffentliches Wirtschaftsrecht, Kiel University (CAU)

  • Prof. Dr. Hermann Kreutzmann, Department of Geography, Freie Universität Berlin

  • Prof. Dr. Herfried Münkler, Department of Social Sciences, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

  • Prof. Dr. Claudia Neu, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

  • Prof. Dr. Götz Neuneck, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH)

  • Prof. Dr. Kerstin Odendahl, Walther Schücking Institute for International Law (WSI), Kiel University (CAU)

  • Prof. Dr. Stefan Oeter, Faculty of Law, Universität Hamburg

  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Oßenbrügge, Institute of Geography, Universität Hamburg

  • Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran, Institute of Geography, Universität Hamburg

  • Prof. Dr. Axel Schildt, Forschungsstelle für Zeitgeschichte in Hamburg (FZH) and Historisches Seminar, Universität Hamburg

  • Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Department of Education and Psychology, Freie Universität Berlin and Z_punkt, Cologne

  • Jörn Thießen, Bundeswehr Command and Staff College, Hamburg

  • Prof. Dr. Klaus Thoma, Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, Freiburg

  • Prof. Dr. Andreas Wirsching, Leibniz Institute for Contemporary History, Munich#

  • Thomas Wrießnig, Federal Academy for Security Policy, Berlin

The project is funded by the National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina.

Contact

Dr. Elke Senne
Research Administrator
Tel.: +49 40 42948669-20
Email: elke.senne(at)awhamburg.de