Rational decision-making based on uncertainty


  • To determine the degree, significance and possible consequences of the conflict between inadequate information and the need to reach decisions based on the scenarios named by way of example.
  • To analyse the degree of achievable rationality of practice-relevant decisions for appropriate action in the according problem situation.

Project description

Many developments in nature, business and society are only predictable to a limited extent in terms of their future course and consequences. Examples include natural disasters, climate change, the outbreak of infectious pandemics, political and ideological conflicts with military invasions, refugee movement, financial market crises, the development of nuclear or automated weapons systems, and the long-term effects of the demographic shift.

Past and future activities

  • Constructive and critical consideration by working group members of scientific lectures by external speakers from various research areas
  • Planned event series at the Academy with lectures on the issues covered
  • Planning of a scientific symposium in cooperation with the infection research working group
Conference Volume

"Rationale Enscheidungen unter Unsicherheit"
Herausgeber: Bernhard Fleischer, Reiner Lauterbach und Kurt Pawlik
Verlag: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2018
ISBN: 9783110598308 - Hardcover für 41,95 €
ISBN: 9783110600261
eBook, als Open-Access-Veröffentlichung unter

Erschienen in der Reihe "Abhandlungen der Akademie der Wissenschaften in Hamburg" (Bd. 8)